By JIMMY D / Wild, Devils will fall in first round | Jimmy's archive

A month ago, Jimmy sagely predicted Washington would catch fire, administer some Capital punishment on the rest of its division and surge into the playoffs. It was a bold call even by silly Jimmy standards, but winning seven in a row to end the year (11-1 overall), coupled with a 1-4 finish by Carolina, put the Caps in.

A month ago, Jimmy sagely predicted that Vancouver was about to fade from its No. 6 playoff perch and fall straight out of the playoffs. But Jimmy erred slightly on the teams he felt would benefit from the Canuck collapse (he predicted Chicago instead of Nashville) and on the team he felt would fade from East playoff race (he predicted Boston instead of Carolina).

Which all brings us around to Jimmy’s fearless first-round NHL playoff picks. They are always good enough to take to the bank, although sometimes the teller will slap an NSF rejection on the cheque.

East

None of these series will go six games. Here’s why.

Montreal No. 1 vs. Boston No. 8
The Bruins leaned heavily goalie Tim Thomas and held them up. They clung to the No. 8 spot by their fingernails. But there is a wrecking ball in Montreal that only needs to swing four times to knock the B’s building down. This is the league’s best power play against the league’s third-worst PK.
Jimmy says Montreal in 4.

Pittsburgh No. 2 vs. Ottawa No. 7
This might have been a bold Jimmy upset call before Mike Fisher and Daniel Alfredsson went down with injuries late last week. We forget this is a Sens team that was unbeatable early in the year. But there is no way they can hang with a hungry Pens team that has the most talent by far in the East and has enough sandpaper to get by the softy Sens. Plus, Fisher only scored in two games since Jan. 30 and Alfy had looked a lot like the rest of Sens in recent weeks – a disinterested guy going through the motions.
Jimmy says Pittsburgh in 5.

Washington No. 3 vs. Philadelphia No. 6
Two theories at work here. One says the Capitals come in smoking hot and are set for a mini-slump at the wrong time. The other says adding a hot goalie (Cristobal Huet), a proven leader who is rejuvenated (Sergei Fedorov) and a gritty checker (Matt Cooke) were the missing parts in a team that can keep winning. Here’s Jimmy theory: the road team won all four meetings this year, nullifying Washington’s home-ice advantage and Philly’s second-rated power play will be the difference in a series against the Caps’ 26th-rated penalty kill.
Jimmy says Philly in 5.

New Jersey No. 4 vs. New York Rangers No. 5
The Devils beat the Rangers Sunday to secure home-ice advantage. It won’t matter. The Devs are one line and Marty Brodeur and the Rangers will beat them handily, just like they did in going 7-1 against them in 2008 (just seven goals in the first seven games total).
Jimmy says Rangers in 5.

West

If you’re in a playoff pool for the first round only, take Western teams. The series here will last longer, so more chances to accumulate points.

Detroit No. 1 vs. Nashville No. 8

Except in this series. Nashville did not make a tremendous surge to make the playoffs. They were just 7-7 in March, but with Vancouver fading, that was enough to earn the No. 8 spot. This is another sweep. The Wings have won nine of 12 meetings and the Predators are prey in this series.
Jimmy says Detroit in 4.

San Jose No. 2 vs. Calgary No. 7
The Sharks were the league’s hottest team in the final quarter, but struggled against Calgary (losing four of past six meetings). The Flames bring some skill and grit and a goalie who can steal a series. But can they oust the Sharks? Jimmy doesn’t think so, although they will win three games for the Kipper in a series that will drain San Jose.
Jimmy says Sharks in 7.

Minnesota No. 3 vs. Colorado No. 6
The home team was 7-1 in eight meetings this year between these two (including Sunday’s season finale won by the Avs). The difference in this series could be fatigue. Joe Sakic missed half the season and is fresh. Peter Forsberg sat for almost the full season and is fresh (although one ankle twist from another prolonged absence). The Avs had the second-worst power play on the year and the Wild ranked second overall in PK. But with Forsberg and Sakic back, is that a relevant stat? Wanna bet the farm on it? Jimmy doesn’t.
Jimmy says Avs in 7.

Anaheim No. 4 vs. Dallas No. 5
Jimmy has long touted the Ducks as repeat champions and they get a tough first-round test in the Dallas Stars. And while the Stars won five of the first six meetings, looky looky what happened when we got to late March and the games really mattered – a pair of one-goal wins by Anaheim. Here’s the problem in beating the Ducks. It’s almost impossible to score when either Scott Niedermayer or Chris Pronger are on the ice. And in the playoffs, they each play 30 minutes. Jimmy will let you figure out the math on that one.
Jimmy says Ducks in 6.

Jimmy will let you digest these brilliant selections before giving you the blueprint to playoff pool success in later rounds.

Jimmy D
jpoole@herald.ca